Fantasy Football Projections

CBS Sportsline’s Dave Richard and Jamey Einsberg have an interesting debate today, each seeking to answer the question of which rookie running back should be rated highest in your fantasy football projections.

I didn’t realize (I guess I never stopped to think of it) that there has only been one rookie rusher in 6 seasons to post a 1,000 yard season. While my league does score for yards, the bulk of fantasy points come from touchdowns. This stat was interesting nonetheless.

Richard also makes another important point that applies across the board and not only to the question being posed. Be careful about paying attention to preseason statistics. While Adrian Peterson and Brandon Jackson have done well this preseason, things aren’t always what they seem. Marshawn Lynch has only had 7 carries. Why? The Bills are resting him because he is going to be the man, and the others are having a tryout for the second part of the dreaded fantasy “2-headed monster”.

I think Marshawn Lynch is worthy of at least a 3rd or 4th round draft pick, when the running back pool is dwinlding and you still need a workhorse. Lynch is going to post big numbers, and I hope he’s on my team come draft day.

Einsberg’s argument in favor of Brandon Jackson is compelling, too. Jackson is stepping in for the injured Morency for Green Bay, who could miss the beginning of the season. And Green Bay’s offense is a better offense.

The difference maker for me, though, is that we’re drafting for a season, and I believe Lynch will have a better overall season? Who will be getting more carries in weeks 11, 12 and 13 when you’re vying for a playoff spot? Or when the money’s on the line and a trip to the Fantasy Bowl is at stake? My money’s on Lynch.

If you are looking for the edge when making your fantasy football projections for 2007, one thing to keep in mind is that you want your draft strategy to be as simple and effective as possible. ESPN’s Matthew Berry provides help in this area with his Rules to Live By.

In my 17 years of playing fantasy football, I have always drafted wide recievers first. The theory behind this is that recievers are explosive and, since longer touchdowns count for more, recievers who catch long touchdowns score bigger points more often.

Berry’s suggestions made me rethink my strategy. I’m coming to the conclusion that the best strategy in the draft is to minimize risk and maximize reward at the same time. Learning to minimize risk when drafting is essential to getting to the playoffs, and you can’t win the championship without getting to the playoffs.

Some of the stategies Berry presents are obvious ones. Don’t draft a kicker until last, for example. The top kicker last year went undrafted in most leagues. Good point.

Selecting running backs in rounds 1 and 2 is something crtitical to your success in this year’s fantasy football draft.

He also advocates taking a quarterback over wide recievers, which is interesting. Your touchdowns at quarterback usually don’t count for as much as the ones from your backs or recievers, so why would you take a quarterback over your wideouts? Berry argues that the only players on the field that are guaranteed lots of touches every game are the QB’s and RB’s. I’m not sure I agree with the reasoningMatthew Berry, but it’s an interesting point nonetheless.

Overall, the tips Berry provides are a valuable starting point when mapping out your fantasy football draft strategy. The ideas in this article are sound. For a more complete drafting strategy with a 100% guarantee that you will make the playoffs, click here.